SKM Leads Opposition Flagbearer Race-Swiss Poll

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Wiper Patriotic leader Kalonzo Musyoka is continuing to lead as the best placed opposition presidential choice ahead of the 2027 General Election, with 45 per cent of respondents preferring him as the opposition flagbearer, even as President William Ruto maintains an overall lead in the presidential race.

A new national opinion poll by Swiss Poll International conducted through 4,113 telephone interviews between November 5 and 10, 2026, involving 2,184 men and 1,929 women drawn from the eight former regional groupings of Kenya places Kalonzo second nationally with 28 per cent presidential support, nine percentage points behind Ruto, who leads with 37 per cent.

The findings position Kalonzo as Ruto’s closest challenger in the presidential preference ranking and ahead of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who comes third with 15 per cent.

The opposition leadership preference results further strengthen Kalonzo’s position, with Sifuna attracting 28 per cent support as the preferred opposition flagbearer, followed by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 11 per cent and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at nine per cent.

This suggests that Kalonzo currently commands the strongest individual preference among respondents looking for an opposition presidential candidate, although the figures do not establish whether the different opposition political camps would eventually unite behind him.

The poll also points to possible support for a broader opposition arrangement involving Kalonzo and Sifuna. Among the reported anti-Ruto supporter subgroup, 48 per cent preferred a Kalonzo-Sifuna presidential ticket, with Matiang’i serving as Prime Cabinet Secretary.

With this arrangement three prominent opposition figures would be brought together in a proposed leadership structure even though the politicians have not yet agreed to work together or whether such a coalition would materialise before the election.

Kalonzo’s emerging position comes against a backdrop of widespread public dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, with 48 per cent of respondents saying Kenya is heading in the wrong direction compared with 41 per cent who believe it is moving in the right direction. Another 11 per cent said neither.

The high cost of living was the leading reason for negative assessments, accounting for 34 per cent of the responses, followed by unemployment at 22 per cent, corruption at 15 per cent and poor governance at 10 per cent.

The findings point to economic and governance concerns that could shape the political debate ahead of the next election, providing the opposition with issues around which to mobilise voters.

However, Ruto’s 37 per cent presidential preference and the ruling United Democratic Alliance’s 34.1 per cent party support show that the incumbent retains a substantial base of support.

The poll places the Linda Mwananchi Movement (LMM) second among named political parties with 15.1 per cent, followed by the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 9.8 per cent.

On the reasons for positive assessments of the country’s direction, respondents cited economic projects at 30 per cent, infrastructure at 22 per cent and education reforms at 18 per cent.