Salesforce, today released new data showing holiday retail sales surged to a record $1.2 trillion globally and $282 billion in the United States, but high returns could dampen overall profit margins.
The report indicates that the better-than-expected holiday shopping season was powered by surges in mobile and social commerce alongside increased consumer spending after months of saving in the first half of 2024. However, shoppers have already sent back $122 billion in merchandise.
Both consumers and retailers leaned into the use of AI and agents to enhance holiday shopping experiences through product recommendations and personalised order support, influencing $229 billion – or 19% – of all online orders.
“Retailers had a robust holiday season, but a 28% rise in the rate of returns compared to last year is a cause for some concern,” said Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights at Salesforce. “Retailers who have embraced AI and agents are already seeing the benefits, but these tools will be even more critical in the new year as retailers aim to minimise revenue losses on returns and reengage with shoppers.”
Salesforce data, based on an analysis of 1.5 billion shoppers and 1.6 trillion page views across the Salesforce Platform, highlights trends that shaped the holiday season, including:
Online sales and order growth reached new peaks:
-
Online sales reached $1.2 trillion globally and $282 billion in the U.S. This represents a 3% global year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 4% YoY increase in the U.S. Online sales also grew 1% YoY in the European Union (EU).
Retailers harnessed the value of AI and agents:
-
$229 billion of global online sales were influenced by AI and agents in the form of product recommendations, targeted offers, and conversational customer service support.
-
19% of holiday purchases were influenced by consumers engaging with AI and agents, a 6% increase from 2023.
-
Retail use of generative AI features like agents increased 25% during the holiday season compared to September and October in 2024.
-
Shoppers used AI- and agent-powered chat for customer service 42% more than they did during the 2023 holiday season.
The rate of returns rapidly increased:
-
More than $122 billion of global purchases have already been returned, up 28% from last year.
-
This increase is partially due to trending consumer behaviors like “try-on hauls” and bracketing (buying an extra size above and below your standard size).
-
Salesforce projects that retailers will likely see this number grow to $133 billion – presenting an important opportunity for brands to use agents to make the returns process easier and more tailored to specific customer needs.
Social commerce grew its influence on shoppers:
-
Retailers using social commerce strategies saw 20% of global holiday sales generated through platforms like TikTok Shop and Instagram.
-
Social media as a traffic-referring channel also grew 8% YoY, driving 14% of all traffic to ecommerce sites during the season.
